Biden with 61 percent of their votes and backing Mark Kelly with 65 percent. The Census Bureau's biennial population survey found that there were nearly 200,000 more Latinos eligible to vote in 2020 than there were in 2016.Īnd exit polls show that a majority of Arizona Latinos have consistently supported Democratic candidates, most recently backing Mr. Biden received over 150,000 more Latino votes in Arizona in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
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Through the steady voter registration work of groups like Living United for Change in Arizona and others, the Latino vote has grown steadily in power over the past few years: According to presidential exit polls, Mr. Hobbs is hoping for a sizable Latino vote. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by just 10,457 votes. Phillips is the author of “How We Win the Civil War: Securing a Multiracial Democracy and Ending White Supremacy for Good.”Īrizona’s elections have been closely fought since 2018, when both Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Senator Kyrsten Sinema won by the slimmest of margins and each barely secured 50 percent of the vote. Walker can be assured of a more Republican-friendly electorate than Ms. With midterms usually favoring the party that doesn’t hold the White House and inflation creating a hostile climate for incumbent Democrats, Mr. Republican voters in January 2021 were divided and demoralized by the results of the 2020 presidential election and by Donald Trump’s refusal to accept them. Loeffler’s showing with more favorable conditions. Walker is a football hero - a perfect pick for today’s G.O.P. She was not a good fit for the party, yet she lost the runoff election against Mr. She was an appointed senator whose background as a financial executive was hardly the thing to inspire enthusiasm from an increasingly populist G.O.P. Warnock’s previous Republican opponent, Kelly Loeffler. Walker’s weaknesses as a candidate - above all, his turbulent personal life - his strength as a candidate is relative to Mr.
Herschel Walker will win the Georgia Senate race - and he will prevail with more than 50 percent of the vote, defeating Raphael Warnock in a single round and sparing the state a runoff in December.įor all the attention focused on Mr. McCarthy is editor in chief of Modern Age: A Conservative Review. Oz needs to make the last-minute leap to 51 percent.ĭan McCarthy Mr. As long as there are enough Pennsylvanians who feel unhappy with the Democrats, that is, the unacceptability of Mr. Oz for Senate, even if they don’t particularly like him. Oz down - because with the decline of ticket splitting, the theory goes, every Shapiro voter is a little more likely to be a Fetterman voter as well.īut it might be the reverse: Every swing voter who’s tired of inflation and irritated at the Biden administration but feels compelled to vote Democratic in the governor’s race will be a little more inclined to choose Dr. A certain kind of political conventional wisdom expects Mr. Oz because the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, seems unacceptable to many swing voters, trailing the Democrat, Josh Shapiro, by a healthy, stable margin. Rather, it’s what you might call the law of the conservation of anti-incumbent anger, which holds that if voters want to punish the incumbent party and find one path blocked, they’ll choose the other path even if they aren’t in love with the candidate it requires them to pick. Mehmet Oz will win the Senate race in Pennsylvania isn’t an obvious one - John Fetterman’s debate performance tugging his poll numbers downward, undecided voters breaking for Republicans generally.
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